Magazine Article | October 1, 2015

Does Pharma Demand Forecasting Keep You Awake At Night?

Source: Life Science Leader

By James Mullen, CEO, Patheon N.V.

Given the uniquely long and winding road pharmaceuticals must take to market, it is difficult for developers to predict the manufacturing capacity they will need when their product finally gets there. Necessity demands that developers begin thinking about production capacity around three years prior to launch, but at that time a company has no real idea if its product will be a success, or how big a success, and therefore how much capacity it will need. Will it need a million units, 10 million, or 50 million? Guess wrong one way, and the company has a white elephant and a massive loss on its investment. Guess wrong the other way, and it misses out on irreplaceable revenues.